Tourism Will Be Worth $16.5 Trillion In 2035

Manfredi Lefebvre D'Ovidio, President of the WTTC and Executive Chairman of the Abercrombie & Kent Travel Group, with extensive experience in the luxury cruise industry, shared his views with us, taking as his starting point the global tourism figures that confirm its recovery after Covid. We asked him to make some predictions for 2026: In 2024, the world recorded approximately 1.4 billion international tourist arrivals (visitors staying at least one night), representing approximately 99% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels. In the first quarter of 2025, arrivals increased by around 5% compared to the same period in 2024 (more than 300 million travellers), and by around 3% compared to the equivalent period before the pandemic. (Source: UNWTO) In terms of economic impact, the World Travel & Tourism Council forecasts that the travel and tourism sector will contribute approximately $ 11.7 trillion to the global economy in 2025, representing approximately 10.3% of global GDP. (Source: CNW Network) International visitor spending is estimated at $2.1 trillion in 2025, surpassing the previous peak of approximately $1.9 trillion in 2019. (Source: Globetrender). As for 2026, although there is no single definitive figure, Savills predicts that international arrivals will increase by 3-5% per year, depending on the region.

Analysing the forecasts for 2026, we can see specific trends and note that, in general, travel is not experiencing a crisis: "The recovery, according to UNWTO data, is widespread but uneven: some regions such as Africa and parts of Asia-Pacific are experiencing strong growth, while others are seeing a slower recovery.

For example, Africa recorded +9% growth in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024; Asia-Pacific markets grew by 11% in the same period. More and more women are travelling alone, particularly in the luxury segment. Demand remains strong despite inflation, geopolitical risks and exchange rate pressures, with people continuing to prioritise travel. Demand for shorter, off-season trips is on the rise.

In the luxury sector, two pillars are becoming increasingly important: digitalisation and sustainability. "Personalised, immersive and localised experiences are on the rise, particularly in the luxury sector, for wellness-focused travel and towards a growing awareness of sustainability. The Deloitte survey found that around 80% of luxury travellers want to travel more responsibly, and around 75% are willing to pay more if the value/use of the money is clear." But that's not all; the philosophy of travel is also changing: ‘Luxury tourism is seeing growth in “regenerative travel”, which means not only minimising impact, but also leaving a positive legacy in destinations. In summary: to be successful, luxury tourism must be able to guarantee personal transformation and experiences that are rich in context and aligned with values.’

Focusing on luxury cruises, a sector Manfredi Lefebvre knows well, he points out: ‘Customers are looking for smaller ships with more personalised service, less crowded places, immersive experiences accompanied by cultural themes. They want exclusivity and intimacy.’

Also in the field of luxury tourism, Desirée Bollier, Vice President of Retail at WTTC and also President and Global Chief Merchant of The Bicester Collection, highlights an important aspect that emerges from high-end purchases made by tourists during their travels: "The concept of luxury travel is changing: from simple pleasure to impact travel. An example of this transformation is The Bicester Collection Villages, which offers destinations where guests can discover wonders and an authentic sense of belonging. This is the new frontier of hospitality: meaningful experiences that enrich both the traveller and the place."

Moving on to tourism-related issues, such as overtourism, Manfredi Lefebvre has clear ideas on the strategies to adopt to limit the inconveniences affecting major tourist cities, but also smaller destinations: "We need to succeed in spreading demand over time and space, with fewer iconic destinations, and know how to encourage travel during the shoulder seasons. Manage flows while integrating sustainability and local benefits; raise awareness among travellers and emphasise their responsibilities; higher spending may justify fewer visitors, but with a greater positive impact and a reduced environmental footprint.

In short, tourism can also become a positive resource for the planet: "If done right, the luxury segment and travel in general can be a positive force. They generate significant economic value in terms of employment, investment and infrastructure, and we believe that for many countries this is a vital resource. As already highlighted, by 2025, this sector will account for around 10% of global GDP, according to the CNW Network. It can promote intercultural understanding, heritage protection and environmental awareness. Luxury travellers are often very committed to conservation, local authenticity and cultural enhancement. With proper planning, regulation and design, tourism can support conservation (e.g., marine parks and nature reserves supported by high-value-added, low-volume tourism), sustainable infrastructure (eco-resorts and renewable energy) and local community development. He concludes: ‘The key lies in responsibility: if left unregulated and uncontrolled, tourism can harm ecosystems, cultures and local well-being; but if aligned with sustainability goals, it can become a catalyst for regeneration and protection, rather than exploitation.’