The Risky Bet of the Mid-Range Watch Market: What Strategy for 2026?

For the second consecutive year, the Swiss watch industry has declined. In 2025, exports fell by 1.7% in value, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH). But this moderate contraction masks a deeper transformation that has been underway for several years: an extreme polarization of the market.

Today, growth no longer relies on volume but on price. According to the latest Deloitte report on the watch industry, watches priced above 50,000 Swiss francs—though they account for only 1.4% of volume—alone account for 37% of value and 89% of growth in 2025. Conversely, volumes have halved over the past two decades.

At the top, a quartet dominates: Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe (known as the “Big Four”) hold nearly 50% of the market, according to estimates by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult (Ninth Annual Swiss Watcher report published on February 18). In this context, one question arises: what remains for brands priced below 3,000 Swiss francs? Do they still have a future? This is a question on the minds of the entire industry, gathered in Geneva for Watches and Wonders from April 14 to 20, 2026.

Brands in the affordable segment are struggling. It is becoming difficult for them to maintain their positioning while protecting their margins. A constant tension exists between affordability and profitability, risking the loss of middle-class customers, who are nonetheless essential to the watch market. While many have chosen to play the high-end card, gradually leaving the affordable segment, others are opting for resilience and establishing themselves there for the long term.

Figures released by the FH confirm this fragility: while the segment under 500 Swiss francs is declining (-4.5% in export volume by 2025), the segment between 500 and 3,000 francs remains stable in volume and continues to form the core of the market. For this latter segment, between 2024 and 2025, exports rose from 3.604 billion Swiss francs to 3.609 billion. But this stability is misleading.

On one hand, the entry-level segment is collapsing, facing competition from smartwatches and micro-brands, among others; on the other, the segment above 20,000 Swiss francs is growing. The result: so-called “affordable” brands find themselves caught in a vise.

Added to this is inflationary pressure: the price of gold has risen by more than 60% in five years, crossing the symbolic threshold of $5,000 per ounce in January 2026; the prices of standard movements supplied by players such as Sellita or La Joux-Perret have risen significantly in recent years, driven by the combined effects of rising production costs, capacity saturation, and pressure from a multitude of new entrants. Finally, the strengthening of the Swiss franc against the dollar and the euro has reduced the competitiveness of exports.

Over the course of 2025, the Swiss franc appreciated by approximately 14% to 15% against the dollar, forcing brands to adjust their prices in local markets, sometimes without any real value creation. Since the start of the year, the Swiss currency has gained another 3.5% against the dollar and 3% against the euro. “We raised our prices by 13% in the United States last year, which simply offset the currency effect,” explains Rolf Studer, CEO of Oris, in an interview with Luxury Tribune a few days before Watches and Wonders Geneva.

For brands priced below 3,000 Swiss francs, this situation has raised significant pricing challenges: how to raise prices and maintain margins without losing customers? Because in reality, the purchasing power of the middle class is not keeping pace.

Some brands are therefore choosing to grit their teeth and avoid aggressive pricing strategies, at the expense of their profitability. This is the case for Frédérique Constant: “Maintaining accessible prices has put our business model under pressure,” acknowledges Niels Eggerding, the brand’s CEO.

Neither exclusive enough to capture luxury margins nor competitive enough to rival smartwatches or micro-brands, accessible brands must navigate this middle ground. “No one really needs a mechanical watch for 2,500 Swiss francs,” Rolf Studer rightly noted. “We have to create desire.” A view shared by various players in the segment.

At Frédérique Constant, for example, this value creation involves access to complications traditionally reserved for the high-end segment: a perpetual calendar under 10,000 Swiss francs, the development of in-house movements—the brand attempts to play with the codes of haute horlogerie while preserving its margins.