Geopolitics and luxury: despite the crises, the ‘centi-millionaires’ are on the rise

Succeeding crises (health, geopolitical, economic) have shaken the planet over the last five years. Yet the number of centi-millionaires (those with a fortune of several hundred million) has continued to rise.

Consulting firm Henley & Partners has just published its latest report analysing the number and geographical distribution of individuals' with total liquid assets over 100 million dollars' around the world. Over the last decade, the number of wealthy individuals has risen by 54%, and now stands at around 29,350, spread very unevenly across the planet.

Unsurprisingly, centi-millionaires are mainly found in the United States and China, ahead of their European counterparts.

China has benefited from a spectacular rise in its ultra-rich, with an increase of 108% in ten years, compared with 81% in the United States. As for Europe, its population of centi-millionaires grew at a less frenetic pace: +26% in ten years. There are many reasons for this slower growth: analysts cite Brexit-related issues in the UK, and the slowdown in the French and German markets. It has to be said that certain political choices have had a particular impact on this slowdown.

In the UK, Brexit has been one of the consequences, but it is not the only problem: the government led by the Conservative party for many years has seen the middle class become poorer and public services deteriorate, creating social instability unfavourable to growth.

France, meanwhile, is the most taxed country in the world, according to OECD figures. Although it remains attractive to many international investors, taxation remains an obstacle to the establishment of new large fortunes. In other European countries, far-right governments, as in Italy, have come to power, triggering investor mistrust.

A report published by the Swiss bank UBS predicts that by 2028, the UK and the Netherlands will lose the most billionaires - almost one in six.

However, small pockets of burgeoning wealth persist in Europe, such as Monaco, Malta and Montenegro, a trend mainly due to their status as tax havens. The number of centi-millionaires there has risen by 75% in recent years, raising the European average.

Among the cities with the highest number of centi-millionaires, New York reigns supreme with 744 large fortunes, closely followed by the Bay Area (which includes San Francisco and Silicon Valley) with 675, and Los Angeles with 496 residents whose fortune exceeds one hundred million. This ultra-rich population is expected to grow by a further 50% over the next few years.

The report points out, however, that the fate of America's multimillionaires will largely depend on the outcome of the forthcoming presidential elections. The differences between the economic, social, fiscal, and monetary policies of the two main candidates for the White House are abysmal.

As a reminder, the United States still accounts for more than 30% of the world's liquid wealth, a colossal 67,000 billion dollars.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris recently endorsed the tax increases proposed by President Biden in his 2025 budget, including a tax on the unrealised capital gains of the super-rich. So, will US cities still be attractive to millionaires? Similarly, if Donald Trump wins the election, the predictable drop in confidence among the major international economic players in a president who is subject to several legal proceedings would not help the situation either.

Therefore, it is possible that the balance will shift in favour of the major Asian cities in the next Henley & Partners report. In this respect, Beijing is in fifth place worldwide with 347 centi-millionaires, while the city-state of Singapore is close behind in sixth place, with 336 ultra-rich residents.